Grade 2 Report Card

I have another 10k hands at 10NL Rush under my belt so it's time to grade myself on how I've accomplished the goals I set for myself after the first 10k hands. To review, those goals were the following:
1) Improve my stealing success
2) Improve my SB loss rate
3) Increase my postflop aggression

1) Improve my stealing success
What I discovered after my first 10k hands was that my Button steal winrate, which should be very positive, was actually -16.12 BB/100. I attributed this to problematic hand selection and poor postflop play when called. I'm happy to say things have improved dramatically. Over the last 10k hands, my Button first-in raises have resulted in a winrate of 126.07 BB/100. This has also led to a significant improvement in my overall Button winrate, which was previously lower than at several other positions. Over the last 10k hands, the Button has been my 2nd most profitable position. Although 10k hands is still a small sample (see my previous blog post on variance), the results do at least indicate that I've improved my play in this area.
GRADE: A+

2) Improve my SB loss rate
I had some serious problems in the SB over my first 10k hands. My winrate was -30 BB/100, and it should be better than -25 BB/100. I discovered that I was playing too loosely in the SB (VPIP = 14.95) and I was running into major problems when my SB steals got called. What that happened, my winrate was -47.06 BB/100. I'm happy to say that I've made improvements here too. Over the last 10k hands my SB winrate has improved significantly to -10.97 BB/100. This is no doubt unsustainable over the long term, but clearly the changes I've implemented have been for the better. I successfully tightened up a bit, bringing my VPIP down to 12.98. When I filter by steals that saw a flop, my winrate in the SB was strongly positive (though the sample is very small due to my increased selectivity with my steals).
GRADE: A+

3) Increase postflop aggression
So during my first 10k hands I had become a rather weak postflop player, with a low W$WSF (36.67), low overall AF (2.48), a big drop in my flop AF to turn AF (3.25 to 1.81), and a huge gap between my flop CB and turn CB rates (73.32 and 38.30 respectively). Here again I have made significant improvements. My W$WSF over the last 10k hands increased to 40.81, which is a much more appropriately aggressive number. I increased my overall AF to 3.28, and brought my flop and turn AF much closer together (3.62 and 3.14). Finally, I successfully closed the gap between my flop and turn CB (69.38 and 50.57). Interestingly, my WTSD has dropped to 22.24 and my W$SD has increased to 59.82, which indicates that I am going to showdown with even stronger hands than before. There are probably a number of factors at play here. First, it makes sense that my increased postflop aggressiveness has resulted in fewer hands going to showdown because I'm pushing people off hands more than before. This isn't necessarily a good thing, though, as it may mean I'm not getting full value from weaker hands. It may also be a result of running good over a small sample, so that when I do get to showdown I tend to have the winning hand more often. This is precisely what I have experienced over the last 3000 hands or so when I have been running hot: when I get the money in good before the river my hands have been consistently holding up and not getting outdrawn. It's also possible that this is an effect specifically of playing Rush because my opponents don't really know how aggressively I'm playing. As a result, they're not going to adjust by calling me down lighter, which is what would happen in normal cash games and would lead to higher WTSD and lower W$SD (except when I'm running hot, in which case the WTSD would increase but the W$SD would remain high).
GRADE: A+

Overall, the last 10k hands have been very successful. Even though my results were marginally positive for the first ~7500 hands (my graph jumped up early but then tailed off), I've felt good about the way I've been playing. I still have a lot to learn, especially about how to adjust to regular cash games, but I think I've successfully closed a number of leaks in my game and I've been playing with more confidence than ever before. My hot run over the most recent ~3000 hands isn't attributable to just luck - I haven't been sucking out on people and hitting longshot hands. I think the big differences have been: (1) the improvements I've made to my game have finally started paying off; and (2) when I have hit hands, like flopped sets for example, they've been holding up and I've been able to stack people more often. That can make a huge difference in one's winrate, compared to flopping sets and having everyone fold or getting outdrawn.

So I've aced Grade 2 and I'm ready for the next stage. Since I no longer have any Full Tilt bonuses to worry about, and my confidence is at an all-time high, it may be time to take a shot at transitioning to regular 10NL cash games. The one major adjustment I'm going to have to make is getting used to tailoring my play to my opponents and breaking free from the robotic play of Rush. I can't really develop any specific goals until I have some hands under my belt and can identify some leaks, so for the time being I'll just set myself the rather vague goal of playing well at 10NL.