Progress report: Part 2

So I've spent some time studying my stats through my first ~10k hands of 10NL Rush and I think I've identified some definite leaks.

1) My loss rate in the SB is too high
I've read that one's loss rate in the SB should be better than -25 BB/100 and mine came out to a hare over -30 BB/100. When I dig deeper into the stats I find 2 problems. First, I've been playing too loosely in the SB in general. My VPIP in the SB during this stretch was 14.95, and when I filter by hands that I didn't raise to identify when I limped or called raises in the SB, my winrate is -8.72 BB/100. The biggest problem, however, seems to be failed steals in the SB. When I filter by steal or raise first-in, I actually have a positive winrate of 9.18 BB/100. But when I filter by steals that saw a flop to identify what happens when my steals get called, I find a winrate of -47.06 BB/100. One caveat here is that we're talking about a fairly small sample once you start filtering this deeply, but I did find one example of a problem hand in which I attempted a steal with 87s and overplayed it when it missed postflop, firing 2 bullets on a very wet board. I clearly need to be more careful about how I play failed SB steals postflop, for example giving up early if my speculative hand steals miss completely on wet flops.

2) Low W$WSF
My W$WSF stat over this stretch was only 36.67, which is definitely on the low side. It should be in the 'hood of 40. A low stat here suggests weakness postflop, usually a result of getting pushed off hands. This could be caused by playing fit-or-fold too much, which actually isn't necessarily an inappropriate strategy in Rush when you don't have reads on players to help identify floating opportunities. This is confirmed by my combined low WTSD (24.19) and high W$SD (57.60), which taken together indicate that I'm only going to showdown with strong hands. All these stats give a good picture of someone who plays weak-tight postflop poker.

However, it may also indicate that I'm not firing enough 2nd bullets and/or going into check-fold mode too often. Some other stats confirm this concern. My overall AF is on the low side at 2.48 (should be closer to 3), and my street-by-street AF drops from 3.25 on the flop to 1.81 on the turn. Another very telling stat is the difference between my flop CB rate of 73.72 and turn CB rate of 38.30. Thus, it would seem that I pull back on the turn too often and don't fire enough 2nd bullets.

3) Running into trouble with failed steals
When I first started looking at my steal stats I noticed a big problem with my Button steals. Over this stretch raising first-in from the Button resulted in a winrate of -16.12 BB/100. However, when I looked at the actual hands I discovered that this was due almost entirely to one hand w/ AKo, in which I stupidly overplayed TPTK by shove check-raising on the turn and ran into a big hand. That said, I still should have a stronger winrate on the Button even without that one hand, so there might still be a problem there. No doubt this has something to do with my aggression problems noted above, and my hand selection (which I noted in a previous post). Also relevant here is my discussion of failed SB steals in section 1 above.