Now that I've finished analyzing my play over my first 10k hands at 10NL Rush, I'm going to set a few goals for grade 2, the next stage in my poker education. Although my bonus period is about to end, and that was the main reason for focusing on Rush over the last little while, I'm going to continue playing it for another 10k hands because it is a good training ground. It allows me to put up good volume and develop my basic skills before working on the more advanced skills of learning to read players and apply my skills to specific player tendencies.
Goal 1: Improve my stealing, especially on the Button and in the SB
I plan to achieve this goal by continuing to improve my stealing hand selection (not just stealing with ATC when the opportunity presents itself) and by working on my postflop play. More specifically, I need to pull back when appropriate and not just keep firing bets because I raised preflop. This is particularly important in the SB where I'll be playing OOP when my steal attempt gets called.
Goal 2: Improve my SB loss rate
I plan to achieve this goal by tightening up in the SB and improving my SB stealing.
Goal 3: Increase my postflop aggression
I plan to achieve this goal by firing more 2nd bullets in the right situations and to keep value betting in the right situations. I need to cut down on how often I go into check-fold mode. I'm going to work on closing the gap between my flop and turn CB rates.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Progress report: Part 2
So I've spent some time studying my stats through my first ~10k hands of 10NL Rush and I think I've identified some definite leaks.
1) My loss rate in the SB is too high
I've read that one's loss rate in the SB should be better than -25 BB/100 and mine came out to a hare over -30 BB/100. When I dig deeper into the stats I find 2 problems. First, I've been playing too loosely in the SB in general. My VPIP in the SB during this stretch was 14.95, and when I filter by hands that I didn't raise to identify when I limped or called raises in the SB, my winrate is -8.72 BB/100. The biggest problem, however, seems to be failed steals in the SB. When I filter by steal or raise first-in, I actually have a positive winrate of 9.18 BB/100. But when I filter by steals that saw a flop to identify what happens when my steals get called, I find a winrate of -47.06 BB/100. One caveat here is that we're talking about a fairly small sample once you start filtering this deeply, but I did find one example of a problem hand in which I attempted a steal with 87s and overplayed it when it missed postflop, firing 2 bullets on a very wet board. I clearly need to be more careful about how I play failed SB steals postflop, for example giving up early if my speculative hand steals miss completely on wet flops.
2) Low W$WSF
My W$WSF stat over this stretch was only 36.67, which is definitely on the low side. It should be in the 'hood of 40. A low stat here suggests weakness postflop, usually a result of getting pushed off hands. This could be caused by playing fit-or-fold too much, which actually isn't necessarily an inappropriate strategy in Rush when you don't have reads on players to help identify floating opportunities. This is confirmed by my combined low WTSD (24.19) and high W$SD (57.60), which taken together indicate that I'm only going to showdown with strong hands. All these stats give a good picture of someone who plays weak-tight postflop poker.
However, it may also indicate that I'm not firing enough 2nd bullets and/or going into check-fold mode too often. Some other stats confirm this concern. My overall AF is on the low side at 2.48 (should be closer to 3), and my street-by-street AF drops from 3.25 on the flop to 1.81 on the turn. Another very telling stat is the difference between my flop CB rate of 73.72 and turn CB rate of 38.30. Thus, it would seem that I pull back on the turn too often and don't fire enough 2nd bullets.
3) Running into trouble with failed steals
When I first started looking at my steal stats I noticed a big problem with my Button steals. Over this stretch raising first-in from the Button resulted in a winrate of -16.12 BB/100. However, when I looked at the actual hands I discovered that this was due almost entirely to one hand w/ AKo, in which I stupidly overplayed TPTK by shove check-raising on the turn and ran into a big hand. That said, I still should have a stronger winrate on the Button even without that one hand, so there might still be a problem there. No doubt this has something to do with my aggression problems noted above, and my hand selection (which I noted in a previous post). Also relevant here is my discussion of failed SB steals in section 1 above.
1) My loss rate in the SB is too high
I've read that one's loss rate in the SB should be better than -25 BB/100 and mine came out to a hare over -30 BB/100. When I dig deeper into the stats I find 2 problems. First, I've been playing too loosely in the SB in general. My VPIP in the SB during this stretch was 14.95, and when I filter by hands that I didn't raise to identify when I limped or called raises in the SB, my winrate is -8.72 BB/100. The biggest problem, however, seems to be failed steals in the SB. When I filter by steal or raise first-in, I actually have a positive winrate of 9.18 BB/100. But when I filter by steals that saw a flop to identify what happens when my steals get called, I find a winrate of -47.06 BB/100. One caveat here is that we're talking about a fairly small sample once you start filtering this deeply, but I did find one example of a problem hand in which I attempted a steal with 87s and overplayed it when it missed postflop, firing 2 bullets on a very wet board. I clearly need to be more careful about how I play failed SB steals postflop, for example giving up early if my speculative hand steals miss completely on wet flops.
2) Low W$WSF
My W$WSF stat over this stretch was only 36.67, which is definitely on the low side. It should be in the 'hood of 40. A low stat here suggests weakness postflop, usually a result of getting pushed off hands. This could be caused by playing fit-or-fold too much, which actually isn't necessarily an inappropriate strategy in Rush when you don't have reads on players to help identify floating opportunities. This is confirmed by my combined low WTSD (24.19) and high W$SD (57.60), which taken together indicate that I'm only going to showdown with strong hands. All these stats give a good picture of someone who plays weak-tight postflop poker.
However, it may also indicate that I'm not firing enough 2nd bullets and/or going into check-fold mode too often. Some other stats confirm this concern. My overall AF is on the low side at 2.48 (should be closer to 3), and my street-by-street AF drops from 3.25 on the flop to 1.81 on the turn. Another very telling stat is the difference between my flop CB rate of 73.72 and turn CB rate of 38.30. Thus, it would seem that I pull back on the turn too often and don't fire enough 2nd bullets.
3) Running into trouble with failed steals
When I first started looking at my steal stats I noticed a big problem with my Button steals. Over this stretch raising first-in from the Button resulted in a winrate of -16.12 BB/100. However, when I looked at the actual hands I discovered that this was due almost entirely to one hand w/ AKo, in which I stupidly overplayed TPTK by shove check-raising on the turn and ran into a big hand. That said, I still should have a stronger winrate on the Button even without that one hand, so there might still be a problem there. No doubt this has something to do with my aggression problems noted above, and my hand selection (which I noted in a previous post). Also relevant here is my discussion of failed SB steals in section 1 above.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Progress report: Part 1
Now that I've played my first 10,000 hands at 10NL Rush, I figure this would be a good time for a progress report. I've been focused solely on Rush while I clear my new Full Tilt bonus, so I'm putting aside my 45-turbo goals for the time being. This progress report will occur in two parts: in part 1 I'm going to review the goals I set in my earlier post and give myself a report card based on my performance. In step 2 I'm going to examine my Poker Tracker stats more closely to identify leaks and areas for improvement. I'll use this information to set my goals for the next stage of my studies.
Goal 1: 3-bet more from the Button and Blinds
When I made the goals post on Feb. 21 I was a very nitty 3-bettor. My 3-bet stats preflop were 1.28 overall, 2.63 from the Button, 1.26 from the BB and 1.72 from the SB (through 3600+ hands). In the period since that post (~6700 hands) I've increased my 3-betting frequency quite a bit, to 3.04 overall, 4.17 from the Button, 4.55 from the BB and 2.89 from the SB. Of course an important question is whether that actually makes a positive difference in my results. If I filter my stats by preflop 3-betting, I earned 227 BB/100 in a very small sample of only 15 hands in the earlier period, while I earned 282.5 BB/100 in 64 hands during the later period. The sample size is obviously way too small to draw any real conclusions about the success of my 3-betting, but I have at least accomplished my goal of increasing my 3-betting frequency (overall and on the Button and in the Blinds) without hurting my results. Since this is in Rush where I'm 3-betting without reads, I'll have to learn to become more selective about my 3-betting when I move back to regular cash NLHE (which doesn't mean 3-bet less, only tailor my 3-betting based on my reads).
GRADE: A+
Goal 2: Stop getting involved in big pots with marginal holdings
This is a tough goal to evaluate, both because it would require some deep digging into my stats to see what kinds of hands I've been playing in big pots but also because the more I learn from my fellow NLHE players in discussion fora the more I have come to appreciate that the important skill to develop is not how to avoid big pots with marginal holdings, but how to effectively and successfully play marginal spots. It is, after all, impossible to completely avoid big pots with marginal hands. That being said, I do feel that I am becoming a bit more comfortable in marginal spots, learning when to check-call, check-fold, or bet, and when to make big calls. My postflop play with marginal holdings is probably the one area of my game I need the most work on going forward.
GRADE: B
Goal 3: Tighten up considerably in early and middle positions
Here is a comparison of my VPIP stats from various early/middle positions, pre- and post-Feb. 21:
SB - 17.12/13.79
UTG - 12.24/7.22
UTG+1 - 9.4/6.78
MP1 - 13.77/9.72
MP2 - 18.14/14.23
The change is pretty significant, having reduced my VPIP by 3-5% in all positions. I think I still have some work to do in the SB, however.
GRADE: A
Goal 4: Stop raising in late position purely to steal or set up a continuation bet - focus more on raising with hands that have good potential to hit big and are easy to play postflop
This is another goal that might require a bit of digging in my PT stats but I do know that I have made a concerted effort to be a bit more selective about my steals. I might be able to tell something from the changes in PFR stats and BB/hand winnings. Below is a comparison of my PFR and BB/hand stats, with the pre-Feb.21 stats and analysis posted first followed by the post-Feb.21 period.
Button: 9.42/0.15
CO: 10.30/-0.02
HJ: 11.64/0.01
The PFR stats are a bit odd as they indicate a wider stealing range from HJ, getting a bit tighter toward the Button. It should really be the other way around. This may be a result of compensating for the fact that most players identify Button steals as raises more than raises from other positions, so I was already being a bit more selective about my Button steals. The BB/hand numbers indicate that my raises from Button were profitable but I was running into trouble in CO and HJ. Now for the post-Feb.21 stats:
Button: 12.75/-0.01
CO: 12.31/0.26
HJ: 16.20/0.31
Well this is interesting. My LP raising game has opened up considerably, most notably on the Button and in the HJ. This isn't exactly consistent with the goal of being more selective with my steals. The $ results show that my performance on the Button has diminished considerably, so there is clearly a problem there. However, I've become quite profitable on my LP raises in the CO and HJ positions. Without looking deeper into the stats it's hard to tell whether the profitability is due to taking down more pots preflop with the higher steal rate, or improved postflop play. Clearly there is some more analysis needed with respect to my LP raises, especially the Button issue.
GRADE: C+ (though this one is hard to judge)
In Part 2 of my progress report I'm going to delve deeper into some of my stats to further understand some of the above issues and to identify other leaks as well.
Goal 1: 3-bet more from the Button and Blinds
When I made the goals post on Feb. 21 I was a very nitty 3-bettor. My 3-bet stats preflop were 1.28 overall, 2.63 from the Button, 1.26 from the BB and 1.72 from the SB (through 3600+ hands). In the period since that post (~6700 hands) I've increased my 3-betting frequency quite a bit, to 3.04 overall, 4.17 from the Button, 4.55 from the BB and 2.89 from the SB. Of course an important question is whether that actually makes a positive difference in my results. If I filter my stats by preflop 3-betting, I earned 227 BB/100 in a very small sample of only 15 hands in the earlier period, while I earned 282.5 BB/100 in 64 hands during the later period. The sample size is obviously way too small to draw any real conclusions about the success of my 3-betting, but I have at least accomplished my goal of increasing my 3-betting frequency (overall and on the Button and in the Blinds) without hurting my results. Since this is in Rush where I'm 3-betting without reads, I'll have to learn to become more selective about my 3-betting when I move back to regular cash NLHE (which doesn't mean 3-bet less, only tailor my 3-betting based on my reads).
GRADE: A+
Goal 2: Stop getting involved in big pots with marginal holdings
This is a tough goal to evaluate, both because it would require some deep digging into my stats to see what kinds of hands I've been playing in big pots but also because the more I learn from my fellow NLHE players in discussion fora the more I have come to appreciate that the important skill to develop is not how to avoid big pots with marginal holdings, but how to effectively and successfully play marginal spots. It is, after all, impossible to completely avoid big pots with marginal hands. That being said, I do feel that I am becoming a bit more comfortable in marginal spots, learning when to check-call, check-fold, or bet, and when to make big calls. My postflop play with marginal holdings is probably the one area of my game I need the most work on going forward.
GRADE: B
Goal 3: Tighten up considerably in early and middle positions
Here is a comparison of my VPIP stats from various early/middle positions, pre- and post-Feb. 21:
SB - 17.12/13.79
UTG - 12.24/7.22
UTG+1 - 9.4/6.78
MP1 - 13.77/9.72
MP2 - 18.14/14.23
The change is pretty significant, having reduced my VPIP by 3-5% in all positions. I think I still have some work to do in the SB, however.
GRADE: A
Goal 4: Stop raising in late position purely to steal or set up a continuation bet - focus more on raising with hands that have good potential to hit big and are easy to play postflop
This is another goal that might require a bit of digging in my PT stats but I do know that I have made a concerted effort to be a bit more selective about my steals. I might be able to tell something from the changes in PFR stats and BB/hand winnings. Below is a comparison of my PFR and BB/hand stats, with the pre-Feb.21 stats and analysis posted first followed by the post-Feb.21 period.
Button: 9.42/0.15
CO: 10.30/-0.02
HJ: 11.64/0.01
The PFR stats are a bit odd as they indicate a wider stealing range from HJ, getting a bit tighter toward the Button. It should really be the other way around. This may be a result of compensating for the fact that most players identify Button steals as raises more than raises from other positions, so I was already being a bit more selective about my Button steals. The BB/hand numbers indicate that my raises from Button were profitable but I was running into trouble in CO and HJ. Now for the post-Feb.21 stats:
Button: 12.75/-0.01
CO: 12.31/0.26
HJ: 16.20/0.31
Well this is interesting. My LP raising game has opened up considerably, most notably on the Button and in the HJ. This isn't exactly consistent with the goal of being more selective with my steals. The $ results show that my performance on the Button has diminished considerably, so there is clearly a problem there. However, I've become quite profitable on my LP raises in the CO and HJ positions. Without looking deeper into the stats it's hard to tell whether the profitability is due to taking down more pots preflop with the higher steal rate, or improved postflop play. Clearly there is some more analysis needed with respect to my LP raises, especially the Button issue.
GRADE: C+ (though this one is hard to judge)
In Part 2 of my progress report I'm going to delve deeper into some of my stats to further understand some of the above issues and to identify other leaks as well.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Reasoning through a hand
So here's a hand I'm particularly proud of from the end of last night's 10NL Rush session (I moved back up to 10NL while I clear a new bonus). The hand isn't the most exciting hand in the world but I am proud of how I reasoned through it. That's actually one of my weaknesses as a poker player. I have a terrible habit of playing hands almost reflexively, until I run into a tough decision - and then I start to think back through the hand to put my opponent on a range. That's not the most effective way to make poker decisions. What I have to work on is thinking through the hand at each step along the way, so that I'm prepared when the big decision comes my way. I felt I did that pretty well in this hand, which is why I'm posting it. After the hand I discuss my reasoning process.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($8.92)
SB ($16.42)
BB ($5.58)
UTG ($16.88)
UTG+1 ($10.94)
MP1 ($3.65)
MP2 ($5.77)
Hero (MP3) ($10.24)
CO ($11.46)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K
, K
4 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, Button raises to $0.90, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.60
Flop: ($1.95) 6, A
, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20
Turn: ($4.35) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
River: ($4.35) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.80, Button calls $1.80
Total pot: $7.95 | Rake: $0.53
Reasoning process
Preflop: Standard raise w/ KK. Villain 3-bets from the Button, so what is his range? 3-bets at regular 10NL are rare but in Rush they are much more common. The fact that his 3-bet is from the Button against my raise from the Hijack means his range is fairly wide for a 3-bet. In regular 10NL a 3-bet is usually AA/KK/AK, absent a read to the contrary, with QQ sometimes thrown in. In this situation we can safely include QQ, JJ, perhaps TT, maybe even as low as 99. Possibly also hands like AQs, but 10NL players who are willing to 3-bet aren't usually as comfortable 3-betting overcards besides AK as they are 3-betting pairs and speculative hands. I'd even go lower on his PP range here before I included hands like AQ/AJ. So I decide to call the 3-bet since a 4-bet is likely to fold out much of the weaker part of his range, while getting 5-bet from AA.
Flop: Raising KK and seeing an Ace fall on the flop is incredibly frustrating, and now I'm out of position against the 3-bettor. If I CB here and get raised, what then? This is clearly a way ahead/way behind situation: I'm either way behind a pair of Aces or a set, or way ahead of the rest of his range. So I opt to check to see what he does and he fires a ~2/3 pot bet. Decision time. I realized that his preflop 3-bet actually helps me in this situation because his range is far more narrow than if he had just flat-called. The Ace on the flop reduces the odds of him holding AA, and the fact that I have KK also greatly reduces the combinations of AK he could be holding. It's possible he could have AQ but there are actually more hands in his range that I beat here: QQ, JJ, TT, and 99. So I opt to call, planning to check again on the turn to see if he fires again.
Turn: Turn is a trash card and I check. He opts to check behind, which is a big show of weakness. If he had flopped a big hand, such as a set, why would he bet 2/3 pot on the flop but pull back on the turn? Most players in that situation would slowplay the flop, or bet smaller to entice a call. Similarly, why would he check behind with AK or AQ after firing the flop? Sure, he could be trying to entice me to bet the river (I often do that myself), but isn't it more likely he has one of his lower pairs and has been scared by my flop call?
River: River bets are actually one of the weaker parts of my game but I felt confident about this one. One of the golden rules of betting is that if your bet will only fold weaker hands but get called/raised by better hands, there is no point in betting. So why did I bet this river, and why so small? Based on my reasoning process thus far, I felt he had a hand with value but one that he didn't feel all that confident about with the Ace on the board and my play thus far. So I wasn't too concerned about getting raised but I knew he would also have a tough time folding one of his better pairs (QQ, JJ, even TT). I didn't want to bet too large, because a large bet might just fold out these hands.
Result: Villain flipped over TT.
Button ($8.92)
SB ($16.42)
BB ($5.58)
UTG ($16.88)
UTG+1 ($10.94)
MP1 ($3.65)
MP2 ($5.77)
Hero (MP3) ($10.24)
CO ($11.46)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K
, K4 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, Button raises to $0.90, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.60
Flop: ($1.95) 6
, A, 8 (2 players)Hero checks, Button bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20
Turn: ($4.35) 5
(2 players)Hero checks, Button checks
River: ($4.35) 9
(2 players)Hero bets $1.80, Button calls $1.80
Total pot: $7.95 | Rake: $0.53
Reasoning process
Preflop: Standard raise w/ KK. Villain 3-bets from the Button, so what is his range? 3-bets at regular 10NL are rare but in Rush they are much more common. The fact that his 3-bet is from the Button against my raise from the Hijack means his range is fairly wide for a 3-bet. In regular 10NL a 3-bet is usually AA/KK/AK, absent a read to the contrary, with QQ sometimes thrown in. In this situation we can safely include QQ, JJ, perhaps TT, maybe even as low as 99. Possibly also hands like AQs, but 10NL players who are willing to 3-bet aren't usually as comfortable 3-betting overcards besides AK as they are 3-betting pairs and speculative hands. I'd even go lower on his PP range here before I included hands like AQ/AJ. So I decide to call the 3-bet since a 4-bet is likely to fold out much of the weaker part of his range, while getting 5-bet from AA.
Flop: Raising KK and seeing an Ace fall on the flop is incredibly frustrating, and now I'm out of position against the 3-bettor. If I CB here and get raised, what then? This is clearly a way ahead/way behind situation: I'm either way behind a pair of Aces or a set, or way ahead of the rest of his range. So I opt to check to see what he does and he fires a ~2/3 pot bet. Decision time. I realized that his preflop 3-bet actually helps me in this situation because his range is far more narrow than if he had just flat-called. The Ace on the flop reduces the odds of him holding AA, and the fact that I have KK also greatly reduces the combinations of AK he could be holding. It's possible he could have AQ but there are actually more hands in his range that I beat here: QQ, JJ, TT, and 99. So I opt to call, planning to check again on the turn to see if he fires again.
Turn: Turn is a trash card and I check. He opts to check behind, which is a big show of weakness. If he had flopped a big hand, such as a set, why would he bet 2/3 pot on the flop but pull back on the turn? Most players in that situation would slowplay the flop, or bet smaller to entice a call. Similarly, why would he check behind with AK or AQ after firing the flop? Sure, he could be trying to entice me to bet the river (I often do that myself), but isn't it more likely he has one of his lower pairs and has been scared by my flop call?
River: River bets are actually one of the weaker parts of my game but I felt confident about this one. One of the golden rules of betting is that if your bet will only fold weaker hands but get called/raised by better hands, there is no point in betting. So why did I bet this river, and why so small? Based on my reasoning process thus far, I felt he had a hand with value but one that he didn't feel all that confident about with the Ace on the board and my play thus far. So I wasn't too concerned about getting raised but I knew he would also have a tough time folding one of his better pairs (QQ, JJ, even TT). I didn't want to bet too large, because a large bet might just fold out these hands.
Result: Villain flipped over TT.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Looking at hands in the light of day
An important part of becoming a better poker player is having the willingness and openness to look back critically at hands you've played and see if there is anything you should have done differently. The most obvious time to do this is when you've lost a big pot. One of the great things about playing poker on the internet is that you have at your disposal both the technology and the audience to enable you to get almost instant feedback from other poker players on a hand you've played.
I did this with hand 3 from my terrible Rush session last night, the hand where I called all in on the turn w/ TPTK and lost to a turned nut flush. I converted the hand using the Flop Turn River hand converter (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) and posted it for discussion in my two favourite discussion forums, Full Contact Poker (http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/) and 2+2 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/). What I came to realize thanks to the feedback on the hand was that my call in that hand was stupid. My thought process at the time was, "There are lots of hands besides the flush he could have," but completely overlooked the fact that many of the other hands in his likely range also had me beat: QQ-AA, 33, KQ, AK with a diamond. The reality is that there were very few hands he would play that way that I beat (since I had no read to suggest he was a laggy maniac).
This brings me to an interesting article I came across today when looking on the internet for articles on poker psychology: Smith G, Levere M and Kurtzman R (2009). Poker player behavior after big wins and big losses. Management Science 55(9): 1547-1555. In the article the authors examined millions of hands from three levels of NLHE cash play online: 50NL, 200NL, and 1000NL (if I recall correctly). Their conclusion was that at all levels of play, single large pots lost had a significant impact on the players, causing them to become both looser and more aggressive immediately following the loss. The theory supporting this finding is called the "break-even" model, whereby when gamblers suffer a big loss they adopt a strategy designed to get them back to even as quickly as possible. In poker this translates to playing more hands in the hopes of getting lucky and flopping big, and getting more aggressive in the hopes of pushing opponents off pots. This is likely a key component of what we know as "tilt" in poker.
Although I wasn't playing loosely in that particular hand, it is certainly possible that I subconsciously slipped into break-even thinking after getting stacked on the previous two unlucky hands. Instead of slowing down, thinking through the hand carefully, and making a difficult but disciplined decision to fold to the turn push, I rushed (no pun intended) into making a bad call. The result speaks for itself.
TJB5MUWP3BTX
I did this with hand 3 from my terrible Rush session last night, the hand where I called all in on the turn w/ TPTK and lost to a turned nut flush. I converted the hand using the Flop Turn River hand converter (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) and posted it for discussion in my two favourite discussion forums, Full Contact Poker (http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/) and 2+2 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/). What I came to realize thanks to the feedback on the hand was that my call in that hand was stupid. My thought process at the time was, "There are lots of hands besides the flush he could have," but completely overlooked the fact that many of the other hands in his likely range also had me beat: QQ-AA, 33, KQ, AK with a diamond. The reality is that there were very few hands he would play that way that I beat (since I had no read to suggest he was a laggy maniac).
This brings me to an interesting article I came across today when looking on the internet for articles on poker psychology: Smith G, Levere M and Kurtzman R (2009). Poker player behavior after big wins and big losses. Management Science 55(9): 1547-1555. In the article the authors examined millions of hands from three levels of NLHE cash play online: 50NL, 200NL, and 1000NL (if I recall correctly). Their conclusion was that at all levels of play, single large pots lost had a significant impact on the players, causing them to become both looser and more aggressive immediately following the loss. The theory supporting this finding is called the "break-even" model, whereby when gamblers suffer a big loss they adopt a strategy designed to get them back to even as quickly as possible. In poker this translates to playing more hands in the hopes of getting lucky and flopping big, and getting more aggressive in the hopes of pushing opponents off pots. This is likely a key component of what we know as "tilt" in poker.
Although I wasn't playing loosely in that particular hand, it is certainly possible that I subconsciously slipped into break-even thinking after getting stacked on the previous two unlucky hands. Instead of slowing down, thinking through the hand carefully, and making a difficult but disciplined decision to fold to the turn push, I rushed (no pun intended) into making a bad call. The result speaks for itself.
TJB5MUWP3BTX
Monday, February 22, 2010
Maybe I should stay away from Rush altogether...
Time for my first venting post. I two-tabled 5NL Rush tonight and got slaughtered. Got stacked three times tonight, which has never happened to me playing cash NLHE. Here's the breakdown:
Hand 1:
Doing fine, up half a buy-in on one table. Call a raise w/ 88, flop a set, get villain in on the flop (he had me covered). He flips over KK (perfect) and of course turns one of his two K outs.
Hand 2:
Limp behind several w/ 66, flop comes Q44. Checked around, turn is a 6 (perfect). A bit of money goes in on the turn and then the rest goes in on a river 2. Villain flips over QQ for the limped big pair and slowplayed flopped overfull. Nice.
Hand 3:
Call a raise w/ AK in position, we go to the flop heads-up. Flop comes KQ6 with 2 diamonds (I have none). Raiser CB's pot, I call w/ TPTK, turn is a 3rd diamond. Raiser pushes. Since there is plenty in his range besides a flush I make the call for the rest of my stack. He turns over A7dd. This is the only hand I possibly could have played differently. Are there enough hands in his range on the turn besides ones that beat me, or am I rationalizing a bad decision?
On the bright side, I earned $1.26 toward my new FullTilt bonus offer!
Hand 1:
Doing fine, up half a buy-in on one table. Call a raise w/ 88, flop a set, get villain in on the flop (he had me covered). He flips over KK (perfect) and of course turns one of his two K outs.
Hand 2:
Limp behind several w/ 66, flop comes Q44. Checked around, turn is a 6 (perfect). A bit of money goes in on the turn and then the rest goes in on a river 2. Villain flips over QQ for the limped big pair and slowplayed flopped overfull. Nice.
Hand 3:
Call a raise w/ AK in position, we go to the flop heads-up. Flop comes KQ6 with 2 diamonds (I have none). Raiser CB's pot, I call w/ TPTK, turn is a 3rd diamond. Raiser pushes. Since there is plenty in his range besides a flush I make the call for the rest of my stack. He turns over A7dd. This is the only hand I possibly could have played differently. Are there enough hands in his range on the turn besides ones that beat me, or am I rationalizing a bad decision?
On the bright side, I earned $1.26 toward my new FullTilt bonus offer!
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Grade 1 poker goals
So what do I need to do to pass Grade 1? Quite simply, I need to be profitable at both my games ($1.10 45-turbos and 5NL Rush) over an acceptable sample to graduate to the next grade. More specifically, I need to increase my Stars bankroll so that I can afford to play the next level of 45-turbos ($3.25). In order to do that I need to work on a few aspects of my game.
For the 45-turbos I have one main goal:
As for 5NL Rush, I have a few goals as I'm not in the zone at all when it comes to this game:
As for goal 2 (and 4 as well), the great thing about Rush poker is that because you see so many more hands in a session than you do playing regular NLHE, you can afford to be patient. You simply don't have to get mixed up in pots with marginal holdings - you can pick your spots and wait for more situations that are more clearly +ev.
For the 45-turbos I have one main goal:
- Pull the trigger on late stage pushes more often. Tourney poker, especially MTTs, requires the willingness to put your stack on the line in some pretty marginal spots. Even when you have a stack that seems somewhat healthy, sitting back on your laurels can result in getting blinded down and ending up desperately short. The most important time to pull the trigger in 45-turbos is when you get down to 12-15 players, where a key double-up can put you in great shape going into the final table.
As for 5NL Rush, I have a few goals as I'm not in the zone at all when it comes to this game:
- 3-bet more often from the Button and blinds
- Stop getting involved in big pots with marginal holdings
- Tighten up considerably in early and middle positions
- Stop raising in late position purely to steal or set up a continuation bet - focus more on raising with hands that have good potential to hit big and are easy to play postflop
As for goal 2 (and 4 as well), the great thing about Rush poker is that because you see so many more hands in a session than you do playing regular NLHE, you can afford to be patient. You simply don't have to get mixed up in pots with marginal holdings - you can pick your spots and wait for more situations that are more clearly +ev.
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